CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We have probably all uttered (or muttered) that immortal line of “if you want something done, do it yourself’ when confronted with a less than satisfactory performance from somebody else.  The quote is attributable to Napoleon Bonaparte who, as an emperor, certainly found that this dream of doing everything yourself wasn’t really possible and, perhaps, his downfall may have been attributable to trying to live this dream rather than delegate effectively? [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are very few people that actually enjoy meetings.  I have never heard anyone say, “I can’t wait for the meeting this afternoon” unless it’s followed by “I won’t have to eat at my desk.”

Certainly, the people who are called to attend a meeting largely lack enthusiasm are energetic unless they, or their project, are the reason for the meeting – and even then, only if it’s expected to be a positive experience for them.  And the person calling the meeting will not usually be enthusiastic or energetic unless the reason for the meeting is something joyous or dreadful – or unless they are an autocrat or narcissist who just wants to tell people what to do, how to do it – and otherwise ladle-on (usually unreasonable) commands and demands. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The U.S. federal government is beginning a shift from a reactive approach to a risk event such as a flood or hurricane, to a proactive approach to risk management.  This can be seen clearly in the changes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requirements as stated in the 2018 Disaster Recovery Reform Act (DRRA) and the Draft National Mitigation Investment Strategy.  This piece looks at these changes. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Some interesting points about how organizations apply current standards such as Business Impact Analysis (Assessment) (BIA), risk assessment methodologies, compliance and planning has been written about lately.   Each author presents good arguments for their particular methodology.  Nassim Taleb created the concept of “Antifragile” because he did not feel that “resilience” adequately described the need for organizations to be ready to absorb the impact of an event and bounce back quickly.  [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In earlier articles, I discussed two risk-oriented surveys.  One conducted at the World Economic Forum was of the world movers and shakers.  The second was conducted by North Carolina State University. It reflected the responses of CEOs and senior managers. This article discusses the results of the Aon “Risk Management Survey” of risk managers. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The World Economic Forum conducts a risk assessment survey annually.  The 2019 survey is the 14^th edition.  It contains information from 2009 to 2019.  The article looks at the results of the survey for these years and discusses some implications. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I just got off the golf course hitting 9-holes with my Pop, who is 84 years old.  God bless him, I hope he has many more rounds to play and I look forward to getting out as often as I can with him.  We played the En-Joie Golf Club; a stop on the PGA Tour from 1972 to 2005 when the BC Open was played there – and now, as the Dick’s Sporting Goods Open, which is a stop on the Champions Tour. 

It is unique in that the course is owned and operated by Broome County.  This means that anyone off the street can play a PGA course for municipal rates, which top-out at $49 for 18-holes with a cart on summer weekends (it can be less, depending on date, day of the week, and time). [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In project management we can’t always be in control of the environment around us.  We can only forecast rather than predict risk and despite our ‘reasonable’ or even ‘best’ efforts to mitigate risk; shit happens and emergencies ensue!  It’s not just physical emergencies but also those related to time and cost; overbudget or late projects can create an emergency for stakeholders. Perhaps it’s because we tend to look at the ‘big risks’ or the ‘top ten’ after some semiquantitative assessment but then fail to consider that risks can change with time as more information becomes available.  Or, maybe it is because only those risks that can be clearly defined and are ‘likely’ are communicated to the eyes and ears on the ground.  Those low probability, high impact risks can tend to slip under any risk radar.

Then there is the matter of ‘optimism bias’ and a belief that ‘nothing can go wrong’ or that ‘risk only happens to other people’. Or perhaps, it’s just a matter of management not appreciating what is going on and ‘taking their eye off the ball’. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In another article, I discussed the results of the risk survey conducted annually by the World Economic Forum.  The survey respondents are considered the economic elite.  The responses provide an indication of the concerns of the movers and shakers of business.  Consequently, the questions asked, and the risk concerns expressed are more policy oriented. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Merriam Webster Dictionary defines reputation as:

1a: overall quality or character as seen or judged by people in general

b: recognition by other people of some characteristic or ability has the reputation of being clever

2: a place in public esteem or regard: good name; trying to protect his reputation

Google Dictionary:

the beliefs or opinions that are generally held about someone or something.

“his reputation was tarnished by allegations that he had taken bribes”

a widespread belief that someone or something has a particular habit or characteristic.

“his knowledge of his subject earned him a reputation as an expert”

[Read more…]

ISO 31000:2018 is the world’s foremost risk management standard.  The Standard provides guidelines, principles, framework, and a process for managing risk.

The standard explicitly states that it should NOT be used for certification or registration.  But, it is.

So, what’s going on?  We can only speculate.  But, here goes:

We now live and work in VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) time.  More  companies want to be RISK audited and certified by an independent Certification Body (CB).

And, more CB’s are working to use ISO 31000:2018 as a standard for certification. [Read more…]

For the last few months, I’ve been giving talks on the trade war between US and China.  A few of these talks have been in the US.  Others were skyped to China.

The bottom line is that trade between the US and China has been weaponized.

The Wall Street Journal on December 13, 2018 distilled the challenge:

“… it is questionable whether fragile globalized supply chains can thrive at all in an environment where the world’s two largest economies are disinclines to play by the rules, even their own.”

Our response is that risk (threats and opportunities) is the new lens by which end product manufacturers (brand owners) will have to view China off shoring, on shoring, and sourcing in general. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We hear so much about global warming, climate change and disruptive weather these days.  It is often difficult to understand what is fact, truth and valid from hype, hysteria, and hyperbole.  Should we all be driving electric cars, not eating as much meat, using wind and solar; redefining our lives?  Or, should we forget about it and continue doing what we have been doing since the early days of the industrial revolution?  [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

What is ‘the sum of all fears‘…apart from a Hollywood movie?  During WW2 Winston Churchill knew the risk of failure and he postulated that, even when courageous people amalgamate, they will know fear:

“…take the most gallant sailor, the most intrepid airman or the most audacious soldier, put them at a table together – what do you get? The sum of [all] their fears”. War is a much more serious endeavour than any civilian project but fear is fear.  If a project teeters into trouble the Project Team will fear failure.  They must then deal with this reaction and have the courage to overcome trouble and avoid failure. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There seem to be a lot of sightings of “Black Swans” lately. Should we be concerned or are we wishfully thinking, caught up in media hype; or are we misinterpreting what a “Black Swan” event really is? The term “Black Swan” has become a popular buzzword for many; including, contingency planners, risk managers and consultants. However, are there really that many occurrences that qualify to meet the requirement of being termed a “Black Swan” or are we just caught up in the popularity of the moment? [Read more…]