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All articles listed in reverse chronological order.

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How Likely Will A Natural Gas Leak Ignite?

How Likely Will A Natural Gas Leak Ignite?

Following the release of natural gas, it can be ignited resulting in fire which in turn can potentially result in an explosion. So how likely will a gas release ignite?If you are interested in the major failure modes for natural gas transmission pipelines reported, please refer to an earlier post – External Damage: Number One Cause Natural Gas Pipeline Releases.The ignition probability is related to leak size. Let us consider three hole sizes consistent with European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group (EGIG) database – small (pin-hole leak, 2-cm or less), medium (2-cm < Leak < pipe diameter) and large (full bore rupture, FBR). The table below summarizes ignition probabilities from EGIG report.

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Synergy: Why Group Effects Matter Most When Facing Complexity and Uncertainty

Synergy: Why Group Effects Matter Most When Facing Complexity and Uncertainty

The utility had an excellent opportunity to implement a green initiative. Energy could be created from excess digester gas at the wastewater treatment plant. There seemed to be a full range of feasible options after an engineering analysis.

“We can convert the gas and use it to either heat the building or reuse it to make the wastewater treatment process more efficient,” explained the chief engineer. “it is a 10- to 15-year payback, but the regulators love it so it is easy to get approved. It will buy us some goodwill too.”

“Can we reduce the payback if we sell the energy to the electric grid?” asked the chief financial officer.

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How Much Money is Wasted on ‘Root Cause Analysis (RCA)’ and Why?

How Much Money is Wasted on ‘Root Cause Analysis (RCA)’ and Why?

Properly conducted RCAs are time and resource consuming, so when we are not getting the expected ROI’s from our efforts, we have to consider why are we wasting so much money doing the same thing over and over again? This article will focus on the commercial and process aspects of RCA, that can take away from their effectiveness on the corporate bottom-line and impact the safety of our co-workers.

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How Asset Maintenance Strategy Selection Affects Defect Elimination, Failure Prevention and Equipment Reliability

How Asset Maintenance Strategy Selection Affects Defect Elimination, Failure Prevention and Equipment Reliability

The 20th Century saw maintenance strategy evolve from corrective, predictive and preventive maintenance to reliability maximization. During the 21st century maintenance will disappear and be replaced with risk-free equipment operation where no failures occur. The first steps taken by LRS Consultants toward building risk-free businesses and riskless operational processes was the invention of the Plant Wellness Way “system-of-reliability” methodology.

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Educational Industrial Complex and the Future of Work

Educational Industrial Complex and the Future of Work

Guest Post by Howard Wiener (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In a previous article I explored how workers and employers should approach the future and opined that both would be better off if they each understood the motivations and tactics that the other would employ to further their interests.  Workers are concerned about achieving and maintaining marketability to employers and companies are concerned about acquiring the workforce they need to compete in the markets in which they do business.  I assert that understanding what’s driving the approach each side will take to achieve its aims will be crucial to competing.

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Overcoming Decision-Making Biases

Overcoming Decision-Making Biases

In measurement science, “bias” refers to the systematic error component of the measurement system. Unlike other types of measurement error that are randomly distributed, a bias predictably shifts a measurement in the same direction.

For instance, I recently facilitated a “round robin” measurement correlation study with two other companies, where we compared the outputs of our hardness testers using the same set of test samples. While preparing for that study, I realized that one of our hardness testers, on average, tested 1.1 Rockwell B points higher than the reference sample. It wasn’t testing exactly 1.1 points over, but instead ranged from .8 to 1.4 points over across a series of tests. In other words, we had two error components: a bias of +1.1 points and a random error of +/- .3 points. To compensate for this bias, we shifted down the output reading of the tester by 1.1 points, leaving only the random error component in our tester’s output values.

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Dependence in Production Lines

Dependence in Production Lines
golden oil burning lamp (Genie's home)

As I rode, I thought, how could I use reliability statistics to optimize a solar-tube production line? Then I noticed a brass glint in the scrub brush. It didn’t look like trash, so I stopped and found an old brass oil lamp like Aladdin’s. Naturally, I rubbed it. There was a flash and a puff of smoke, and out popped the genie who said, “Yes master, by the powers vested in me, I grant you three wishes.” 

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How Do You Want Your Presentation to Be Remembered?

How Do You Want Your Presentation to Be Remembered?

It is easy to get caught in this trap. After months of working on an issue, you are asked to provide an informational update to a group of senior decision makers. You understand that no decision will come from your presentation. And there is not much on the agenda, so you are free to make as much as 30 minutes to provide your update.


Your presentation can be a little less formal and use the entire time, right? Wrong.

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Root Cause vs Shallow Cause Analysis: What’s the Difference?

Root Cause vs Shallow Cause Analysis: What’s the Difference?

Does procedural and/or regulatory compliance with RCA guidelines ensure Operational Reliability? Does it ensure improved Safety? Operational Reliability involves the aggregation of Equipment, Process and Human Reliability methods and techniques.

What is the difference between troubleshooting, problem solving and ‘RCA’? Are the outcomes different when we use The 5-Whys, The Fishbone or a Logic Tree/Causal Factor Type Tree? 

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Example of Using Failure Analysis to Improve Reliability

Example of Using Failure Analysis to Improve Reliability

Here’s an example of how a metallurgical failure analysis led to identification of the root cause of a failure, and to identification of the corrective actions needed to prevent the failures from recurring.

Failure analysis

As I discussed in my previous article, metallurgical failure analysis can be used to improve product reliability. The information from failure analysis of a failed component is used to determine the root cause of the failure. Once the root cause is identified, the failure analysis data and findings is used to help identify the corrective measures required to prevent the failure from recurring.

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Why Three Ethics Matter When the Outcomes Are Complex and Uncertain

Why Three Ethics Matter When the Outcomes Are Complex and Uncertain

The Board of Adjustment was having a hard time making a decision. The property owner’s new woodworking shop extends six feet into the required side-lot setback. Even worse, it blocks the scenic view of the neighbor, who paid a premium for the lot.


“So, whose fault is it that the building was built in the wrong place,” asked the board chairman. “Clearly, it was shown on the approved drawing in the right place.”


“I am still trying to figure it out, “replied the property owner.” I hired the best surveyor in town and one of the best contractors. I know it will cost me over $30,000 to move it over six feet. I paid a premium to make it look good like my house, and I am afraid it will look worse after the move. And I don’t have the $30,000 to move it.”


In rebuttal, the neighbor explained, “right is right.” The building location violated the town’s planning and zoning codes. The correct location had been formally approved by town staff, and there was no relief they could provide because this was clearly wrong. Leaving the building in the wrong place would devalue his property much more than $30,000. If the Board of Adjustment did not uphold the ordinance, he would be the victim of something he had no control over.

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Searching for Risk in All the Wrong Places

Searching for Risk in All the Wrong Places

Guest Post by Geary Sikich & Sara Robertson (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Much like the song, “Lookin’ for Love in All the Wrong Places” sung by Johnny Lee; risk management professionals need to ask the question “Are we searching for risk in all the wrong places”?  Are risk professionals being deluded or deluding themselves by seeing risk based on media driven analysis; applying outmoded tools, models, etc. that no longer reflect the reality of risk?

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