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Fred Schenkelberg — Thought Leader

Author of <a href="/creprep/">CRE Preparation Notes</a>, <a href="/on-product-reliability/musings">Musings</a>, <a href="/articles/nomtbf/">NoMTBF</a>, <a href="/book-author/fred-schenkelberg/">multiple books & ebooks</a>, co-host on <a href="/series/sor/">Speaking of Reliability</a>, and speaker in the <a href="/series/sor/">Accendo Reliability Webinar Series</a>.


This author's archive lists contributions of articles and episodes.

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

The Poisson Distribution

The Poisson Distribution

A discreet distribution useful when counting events within a time period.

It models rates, such as the number of gophers in your garden, paint scratches on your car, or the number of shopping carts that arrive in the 5 minutes before you in line. Essentially it’s the count of something over a time period or defined area. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions

by Fred Schenkelberg 3 Comments

The Exponential Distribution

The Exponential Distribution

The exponential distribution is a model for items with a constant failure rate (which very rarely occurs).

If the chance of failure is the same each hour (or cycle, etc.), including the first hour, 100th hour, and 1 millionth hour or use, then the exponential distribution is suitable.

Many practitioners assume the failure rate either is constant or changes so little as to be essential constant in order to make reliability calculations simpler. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions

by Fred Schenkelberg 7 Comments

Reliability Questions for the Drone Industry

Reliability Questions for the Drone Industry

FPV quadcopter by Steve Lodefink
FPV quadcopter by Steve LodefinkIn a few Twitter conversations, I’ve learned about the perceived lack of reliability of commercially available quadcopter or drones.

And, being encouraged to write a paper or two on drone reliability. Now that Amazon has a delivery drone patent, and industrial applications continue to announced daily, there is a need for serious reliability in these devices.

The early adopters and explorers in any nascent industry generally discover the many design faults including reliability issues. That is common.

As the drone industry develops, improving product reliability becomes a business necessity. For industrial application it is essential. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: system

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

How to Be Deliberately Proactive

How to Be Deliberately Proactive

It is not enough to simply state your organization has a proactive stance concerning reliability. It more than running a few tests or thinking about reliability before the product ships or the equipment is installed.

It is a way of doing business.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: planning

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

Point and Interval Estimates

Point and Interval Estimates

A point estimate of the mean of a population is determined by calculating the mean of a sample drawn from the population. The calculation of the mean is the sum of all sample values divided by the number of values. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Statistical Interval Estimates

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

Reliability Questions to Ask During a Review

Reliability Questions to Ask During a Review

Asking the right question is important.

During a review meeting (informal or formal) asking a few reliability questions may reveal weaknesses, strengths, or uncertainty. The design team has many priorities and reliability is often difficult to estimate, yet knowing what is and isn’t known provides a clear picture of risks for decision makers.

If you are a decision maker and need to ascertain the reliability risks of the current design, then asking a couple of questions may provide just the insights you need. It also conveys that reliability is on your mind and that you want to have answers that are meaningful and well thought out.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: goals

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

The Mean, Median, and Mode

The Mean, Median, and Mode

The basic measures of central tendency are mean, median, and mode.

Given a collection of data, a common question is about where the data resides. Knowing the center or mid-point or average is a starting point as we consider the data. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Statistical Terms

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

What to Specify with Suppliers to Achieve Reliability Goals

What to Specify with Suppliers to Achieve Reliability Goals

Selecting a supplier for components or subsystems involves many aspects including the desired reliability performance.

Once selected the ability of the supplier to provide items that meet or exceed the reliability requirements relies on their understanding of the requirements and operational conditions related to the specific item within the system. It also relies on the supplier’s knowledge of their own design and manufacturing processes as it related to the reliability performance. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: goals

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Is this FMEA good?

Is this FMEA good?

It is rare that a third party generated FMEA/FMECA has any value. The development or manufacturing teams and supporting staff should comprise the bulk of the study’s team. Team size for a specific study would include 4 to 10 individuals.

The FMEA/FMECA should provide clear action items that may include:

Conduct research or experiments to understand and quantify uncertainty. This may include exploring how an item responds to specific stress, errors or inputs. Or include experiments to estimate the occurrence rating for a specific potential cause of a failure mode. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: FMEA

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Reliability Distributions and Their Use

Reliability Distributions and Their Use

Reliability Distributions and Their Use

How do you use the Weibull Distribution?

It’s just one of many useful statistical distributions we must master as reliability engineers.

Let’s explore an array of distributions and the problems they can help solve in our day-to-day work.
ᐅ Play Episode

by Fred Schenkelberg 19 Comments

Using The Exponential Distribution Reliability Function

Using The Exponential Distribution Reliability Function

It may be possible to pass the CRE exam knowing one formula.

The math elements of the exam may take a bit of time to solve, and knowing reliability statistics well is a good plan heading into the exam. Knowing the exponential distribution reliability function is one that you should memorize. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions

by Fred Schenkelberg 4 Comments

Preventive Maintenance Goals and Activities

Preventive Maintenance Goals and Activities

Preventive Maintenance or PM is a set of inspections and tasks that help prevent equipment from failing. Keeping equipment operating improves plant capacity and throughput. Avoiding unwanted downtime helps the plant avoid unnecessary expenses and lost productivity.

Checking the oil level in your car’s engine and adding more as needed, along with regular oil changes are examples of PMs. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Maintainability and Availability Tagged With: Preventive Maintenance (PM) Analysis

by Fred Schenkelberg 1 Comment

Uncovering Hidden Field Failure Problems

Uncovering Hidden Field Failure Problems

A reliable product does not fail often. Customers expect to a level of reliability performance and failures that occur too early dash their expectation.

The design and development team work to create a robust product. To meet the customer’s reliability expectations. The team may use a range of tools to detect any reliability problem prior to launch.

Yet, customers do uncover problems that surprise us. This may be a problem with how we identify and resolve risks, yet it could also be the development process didn’t look close enough to find the issues. Or, worse, we saw the issue and ignored it. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: process

by Fred Schenkelberg 1 Comment

5 Steps to Create a Reliability Plan

5 Steps to Create a Reliability Plan

A specific reliability plan may include any number of specific tasks. To build an effective plan you need the knowledge of the individual tools and techniques, plus how they may fit together to create an overall plan to achieve your goals.

Reliability Goals

Of course, this starts with establishing complete reliability goals that include function, environment characterization, probability of success (reliability) and duration.

I recommend setting specific goals for setup/installation (early life), the warranty period and the expected customer use period. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability Tagged With: process

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Reliability Block Diagrams Overview and Value

Reliability Block Diagrams Overview and Value

A reliability block diagram is a graphical and mathematical model of the elements of a system permitting the calculation of system reliability given the reliability of the elements.

The model reflects the reliability performance structure including series, parallel, standby and other arrangements of system elements.

Each block in an RBD represents a component or subsystem of the system. The organization and connecting lines represent the reliability structure of the system and may or may not be representative of the system’s functional block diagram. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Reliability in Design and Development, Reliability Modeling and Predictions Tagged With: Reliability block diagrams and models

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