Get Your MTBF Estimation Here
MTBF is a magic method for predicting time to failure for your new design. On this page we present to you the fastest way to achieving MTBF.
Maybe The Best Function ever!
Zoltar says that your design has an MTBF of:
[arandomnumber min=1.5 max=10000] years
If you don’t like this number, Zoltar can give you another. Just click here:
or try
which may work on your browser.
Note: This function was released on April 1st, 2009. Have Fun!
This method of MTBF estimation is as good or quite possibly better than others in common use. I trust Zoltar will serve your well.
A few years ago a clever reliability engineer create this bit of code for an internal company site.
The intent is to encourage discussion about reliability and improving product reliability performance. The idea is to help those in the organization looking for a quick estimate of MTBF find one. Then the team could engage with them to determine the actual reliability questions and help provide answers.
Estimating, or calculating, or predicting, MTBF is rather a pointless exercise. So, if all you need a number, ask Zoltar. If you want to understand the reliability of your system, well that is not found by looking for MTBF.
How do you encourage your teams and industry to avoid looking for just the MTBF number? Add you thoughts and ideas in the comments below.
Fred,
The link is generating a warning message: “Microsoft Office has identified a potential security concern” could please give the actual URL?
What is expected to happen upon connecting following the link?
Thank you,
Michael
HI Michael, it’s a random number generating java script. MS appear to not like scripts in a post… not sure how widespread that is, so thanks for letting me know.
my first attempt to hook up the wizard used Java scripts, which triggers alerts with a few browsers. Moving to html only solution and it now doesn’t work on all browsers… more work to get this working for all. In the meantime, just pick your favorite value and go with that. cheers, Fred
Fred,
I just clicked “I feel lucky!” but, nothing happened. What is the trick?
I updated the scripts behind the post and it should be working now.
The I feel lucky button just refreshes the screen which reruns the MTBF Estimation function.
Cheers,
Fred
Hi William, it appears that on certain browsers the refresh doesn’t reset the wizard properly, so I’m off into HTML land to sort out a way to help the wizard properly think about the chance to rethink the problem. cheers Fred
Remove the 1st of April reference and I can possible convince some managers this is the correct way of doing MTBF.
Just add the possibility to get a higher random number.
The unfortunate part is many really believe MTBF isn’t a random number most of the time. cheers, Fred
A comment on Linkedin include a link to a wonderful writeup on replacing Mil-Hdbk-217
https://www.electronics-cooling.com/2004/05/nostradamitech/amp/
check it out, well written and rather thought provoking, too.
Cheers,
Fred
I made this, You got. it. from Thomas some time ago right?
http://nomtbf.com/2013/01/grundfos-mtbf-policy/
Johannes
HI Johannes, yes Thomas sent it over and now we even have a working version on the site – great work and story you have with it. Thanks, Fred