In February I did a hit and run trip to Fairbanks Alaska with my daughter, age 11, to try and see the Northern Lights. It was a long shot but I’ve done nuttier expeditions and she was game. It was actually her idea, and she knew who the right person was to ask for such a trip. She turned 11 in January. I asked her what she wanted for her birthday. I was ready for the “this or that electronic” request. Instead she said “I want to see the Northern Lights.” First thought was “Geez that’s a bit extravagant” but then my second thought was she’s 11 and this could have a great impact on her and what an interesting/cool thing to ask for. It might energize an interest in physics or natural photography, or cold weather clothing design. I also thought about how in a few years she may not want to do anything with me because I’ll be an “idiot who doesn’t get it.”
on Product Reliability
A listing in reverse chronological order of articles by:
- Kirk Grey — Accelerated Reliability series
- Les Warrington — Achieving the Benefits of Reliability series
- Adam Bahret — Apex Ridge series
- Michael Pfeifer — Metals Engineering and Product Reliability series
- Fred Schenkelberg — Musings on Reliability and Maintenance series
- Arthur Hart — Reliability Engineering Insights series
- Chris Jackson — Reliability in Emerging Technology series
Predicting Repair Rates with Plots
Published in Quality Progress in Nov. 2018, pp 34-39. Final 1/27/18 Posted here with permission of Dr. Wayne Nelson and by his suggestion.
PREDICTING REPAIR RATES WITH PLOTS
Guest post by: Wayne B. Nelson, consultant
Schenectady, NY , WNconsult@aol.com
I’ll Sleep When I’m Dead
In the past five weeks I have been to Miami, Orlando, Cleveland, Chicago, Fairbanks Alaska, Fortuna Costa Rica. For one stint of that I went Fairbanks to Boston to Costa Rica in a 24 hr period. I walked into my home dropped the Alaska suitcase, grabbed the prepacked Cost Rica suitcase, slept for 6 hours ,and was back on a plane 13 hrs later. I think that qualifies as a HALT test considering the lowest temperature I experienced in Fairbanks (Arctic circle edge) was -30F on top of a mountain and then 85F in Costa Rica in the Rainforest.
So why did I do all of this? Because it’s me and it seemed fun.
I Guess I’m a Bit of a Running Shoe Designer
Anyone who knows me knows I love modifying things. I always feel there is a better design. This is the goal of a reliability engineer at heart. I enjoy sports and I enjoy running. I do believe that we were born to run. If you look at the human body that is clearly what it was built for. Our big toe faces forward, which makes them no longer good for gripping things like branches. But it does make them great for landing a foot in forward motion. We have extremely long legs in proportion to our bodies compared to all other primates. We are slender which provide a great ratio of surface area to mass for cooling. The ability to sweat without hair is a great temperature control method as well. We are also the only mammal that can uncouple our breathing to our running pace because we are bipeds. This let’s us optimize our breathing for long distance.
Review: What is the Reliability of the Reliability Function
Jezdimir Knezevic of the MIRCE Akademy published a paper with the title above and I have a few comments.
In the article, Jezdimir suggests that the statistical approach to describing the world about us is fundamental flaws and not inherently useful for our use. He compares a mathematical/statistical approach to a scientific approach and finds the stats wanting.
Let’s take a critical look at the topic of this paper and conclusions. [Read more…]
The Rover Says Good Bye! :(
The Mars Rover is an incredible reliability story. And as you may know they have decided to permanently shut it off. A friend recently sent me this email when he saw an article on it.
Hey Adam,
The Opportunity rover was supposed to last 90 days, and instead lasted 15 years.
Is that due to remarkable engineering, or was the machine really supposed to last that long and the scientists blew their calculations as to its “lifespan”?
Mark,
My response:
Introducing Program Risk Effects Analysis (PREA)
I introduced my new program tool “Program Risk Effects Analysis” (PREA) at the RAMS Conference in Orlando this week. It’s a great tool to assist in accessing if program schedule or resource should accommodate found design risk from testing or analysis.
-Adam
Use Case 7 Frozen Lake Running
Introduction to Use Case 7
“Use Case 7” is a concept I am rolling out. Use Case 7 is the way a customer may use your product in a manner that is way beyond anything you expect.
Examples:
- Me using a power drill as a hammer. “I’m not walking all the way back in the house to get a hammer just to put a nail in!”
- My Dad when he used to load 300lbs of firewood into the back of his Nissan Sentra. Then make us kids lay on top of it since the seats had to be folded down. But I think that last part is more of a child services situation.
- That wire shirt coat hanger with the leather motorcycle jacket on it, and three pairs of wet ski glove clipped to it…and you hold onto it when you bend down to pick up your shoes.
- You when you were sixteen and had your parents car in a full drift in the mall parking lot on Saturday night (I’m projecting here), or when you owned that same car and didn’t change the oil…ever (sorry Dad)
What I Love About Reliability
Thank You For Letting Apex Ridge Break Your Stuff in 2018
Happy New Year! And thank you for letting us break your stuff to improve your design in 2018. This is a story of when I was NOT invited to break things but did anyway.
Your organization sucks at reliability if (#2) … it loves firefighters so much it forgets to hate fires.
Before you go on, please have a look at British comedian John Oliver’s video on infrastructure – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wpzvaqypav8.
OK, if you are reading this and still haven’t watched the video … please go back and try again. You can do it.
If you haven’t watched the video by now, then I concede defeat. In short, the video is a humorous take on the state of US infrastructure. Particularly bridges. Bridges have been collapsing with alarming frequency in recent years. And after much political wrangling there is still no plan to pay for fixing crumbling columns, spans and struts. It is not as if the federal and state governments don’t know how bad things are (again … watch the video).
Oliver proposes a perhaps novel reason for all of this. [Read more…]
Your organization sucks at reliability if (#1) … it could be on ‘that’ Fatboy Slim album cover.
Alright … this needs a lot of context. English electronic music artist ‘Fatboy Slim’ released his ‘You’ve come a Long Way, Baby’ album in 1998. Its cover art was a photograph of an attendee at the 1983 ‘Fat People’s Festival’ in Danville, Virginia. And perhaps due to its ‘heritage,’ the album’s cover was changed to an image of a bookshelf for North American listeners. But the rest of the world got to bask in its magnificence.
So what is particular about this photograph? The subject is a larger than average human (as you would expect noting where it was taken). And he is wearing a shirt emblazoned:
I’m #1 so why try harder?
I am not writing this as a commentary on human value versus instinctive stereotypes. Far from it. There are plenty of people who are ‘better than all others at something’ that do not have sleek chiseled physiques. [Read more…]
Why?
When something is working it is easy to just keep going forward. But how do you know things will keep chugging along? Is it worth stopping and asking “Why is this going well?”
I like lock picking “Lock Sport.” Of course I do. It’s a mechanical puzzle. It can also make you look like James Bond when someone forget’s their keys. I continue to challenge myself by getting progressively harder and harder locks. Throughout the years lock designs have come up with some great features to resist being picked. But there is still not one out there that is “pick proof”, so there is always a next level. I would say I am a mid-intermediate in the world of Lock Sport. So any lock that actually has good picking defenses can give me a good struggle.
TIG review
As a reliability guy I love seeing how stuff works. Was recently given an opportunity to mess around and compare a new product to it’s siblings in a field I love, welding. I recently provided some input on an article release by Superiorglove about types of insulation and heat conduction. Superiorglove is a glove manufacturer that makes about every type of glove you could imagine, many are really impressive industrial applications gloves. I like how much they get into the science of it. In our discussions I used an example of how my TIG welding gloves protect against conductive and radiative types of heat transfer. They informed me that they had a TIG welding glove line and would love if I would review four of their models. I happily accepted because I love to weld, check out how things work and …free gloves.
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