CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID19) continues to spread throughout the world despite the best efforts of governments and the medical community.  With no vaccine becoming available in the near term and perhaps even in the long term we are faced with growing uncertainty.  It seems that ever since the emergence of COVID19 that conflicting advice, information and guidance has exacerbated the situation and created a lack of trust on the part of the public on what measures to take.  Wear a mask. 

Don’t wear a mask.  Social distance.  Don’t social distance.  The only advice that seems trustworthy is “Wash your hands”; and, that is something that we should do regardless of the pandemic – it’s good common sense. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized. There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer.

It was definitely time for a reorganization. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Fifty years ago, having your own car was a sign of adulthood and your ticket around town. But that is all going to change within the next five to ten years due to rising CO2 levels and a new trend called Transportation as a Service. TaaS sits at the intersection of four technical macro trends. These are:

1. Autonomous vehicles
2. Electric vehicles
3. Connectivity
4. Sharing economy

These trends are here today and are predicted to grow significantly and quickly over the next five to ten years. It is a positive trend with a lot of positive affects on the country and world.

The risk to this trend is the need for electric power will outstrip the supply. This article presents the case for this risk. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

George Bernhard Shaw once said, and it’s now been written down and put on posters and the like: “The problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place”. 

In this ‘Information Age’ we have access to, receive, generate, and send more information than ever before.  People can suffer from infoxication as a consequence of ‘information overload’ and decision making has, we are told, become more difficult as a consequence.  [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) learned of several cases of severe pneumonia in the Chinese city of Wuhan. This strain of coronavirus has since spread through China and into other countries. WHO later named COVID-19.

The emergence of the coronavirus was exactly the type of fast-emerging risk with uncertain consequences that could have triggered quick actions by governments and organisations. Instead, it was played down or dismissed by many. They adopted a wait and see approach to risk management. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

This is where the achievement of objectives must be translated into tangible successes that are linked to positive outcomes.

Growth for growth’s sake is meaningless. Achieving objectives for the sake of it is meaningless unless you want to game the system and get your financial bonuses by meeting some meaningless performance targets. It becomes a meaningless compliance exercise. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

COVID 19 throws a curve ball in the path of life and job security. If you compare life as a walk through a forest, then COVID-19 is a high stone wall (curve ball) along the path of life. Do you stop and retreat or go over or around it and continue your journey? I think you get through the pandemic and continue along the path back to job security and low unemployment. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I was shocked to find out about our drug and medical supplies reliance on China, a dangerous risk to the U.S.  I believe most Americans were also shocked. I believe this revelation is a game changer and the American people will insist on change. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In the past, organizations have pr
acticed agility more than anything else because it is easy to simply pivot and put out small fires as they arise.

But with the world facing a global pandemic, statewide lock downs here in the United States, and a once booming economy now seemingly frozen in time, organizations both large and small are caught in the blaze as those small fires are now an uncontrollable inferno of a great unknown. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In his book “Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasurement of Uncertainty”, Herbert I. Weisberg notes: “Medical research is often held up as the paragon of statistical research methodology. Evidence-based medicine, based on randomized clinical trials, can provide proof of the effectiveness and safety of various drugs and other therapies.” (1)  He goes on to note that clinical practitioners, who’s judgement is informed by evidence-based data, are finding little in the research that is useful. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The risk of a pandemic is not an unknown unknown.  In the 2019 World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report it ranked at a less than average likelihood with a more than average impact.  Not a bad assessment but the causes and consequences are difficult to evaluate.  There is a barrage of statistical data by country; a lack of knowledge and changing opinions which generates misinformation that is then clouded by journalistic sensationalism in the hunt for yet more breaking news and a spot on the TV. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

It is undoubtedly and incontrovertibly true that global extreme poverty has declined as capitalism has driven globalization – the trade between and among nations – to increase over time.  Certainly, there are arguments to be made that the growth in wealth has also been increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer people, but the world as a whole has benefited. The charts below from Our World in Data, showing the number of people living in extreme poverty from 1820 to present, clearly demonstrate that the economic benefit of globalization has been as positive as it has been apparent [Read more…]

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Naturally, a lot of time and effort in risk management goes into understanding the risks that you face. After all, if you don’t understand what you’re up against, there’s not a lot of risk management to be done. However, even when you complete a comprehensive risk assessment, this is just the beginning of the process. Now the real work starts and you have to answer the big question. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The term Black Swan has been used frequently.  This is particularly so, with respect to the Coronavirus. In an earlier piece, I discussed the term Black Swan. Given the increased use of the term in the current circumstances, it is worth revisiting the concept. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

[This article is the third in my COVID-19 series, helping organizations and people conquer the crisis. The first two can be found here and here.]

After the initial response to the emergence of COVID-19, businesses will have to organize themselves to survive the impact of COVID-19.

For countries that have successfully ‘flatten-the-curve’ and relaxing their social isolation, businesses will have to resume and ‘normalize’ their operations. [Read more…]