CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Myth Busters – Statistical Mystery Solved?

We have all heard and/or read the oft quoted “40% of all businesses experiencing a crisis go out of business within one year…”.  Ever wonder where that statistic came from?  For many years a colleague of mine, unfortunately now deceased, searched for the answer; to no avail.  No one could actually cite the source for this statistic.  Many refer to FEMA or the US Small Business Administration:

“According to a report from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 40 percent of businesses do not reopen following a disaster.  On top of that, another 25 percent fail within one year”. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Since 2002, I’ve been involved in well over 100 risk assessments as either an in-house risk manager or as a consultant. Actually, let me rephrase that.

Since 2002, I’ve been involved in the beginning of well over 100 risk assessments. However, I’ve seen many fewer risk assessments completed. Of those completed assessments, fewer still actually get turned into any kind of meaningful action. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The World Economic Forum has conducted an annual survey of its members since 2007.  This piece looks at the results of the 2020 survey of 800 members.  For the first time the survey separately reports the results of 200 members of a “Global Shapers Community”.  This group is considered a younger generation of social entrepreneurs and leaders. By comparing the response of these two groups, one can see a divergence perspective on risk.  This piece will also discuss how survey results can be overtaken by events. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In 2004, The Home Safety Council completed the most comprehensive study ever done of the severity and causes of home injury in the United States. Not surprisingly, the rates of injury are highest among young children and older adults. While there are literally millions of home hazards that exist, the study was able to separate out the five leading causes of unintentional home injury. These five leading causes are:

• Falls -accounts for over 40% of non-fatal accidents
• Poisoning-carbon monoxide and cleaning agents swallowed by children
• Fires/burns-fire in house or apartment
• Choking and suffocation-infants suffocating in cribs
• Drowning/submersion-moistly children in bathtubs and swimming pools

This article focuses on carbon monoxide poisoning caused by a poor furnace ventilation system. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Most of my career was spent with the Department of Defense (DOD) industry. The many programs I worked on included a fairly difficult reliability requirement. I was taught that reliability is designed into a system. I learned that verifying a reliability requirement was done by analysis. But for the system reliability to succeed, you need to consider the manufacturing and installation of the system. This is when risk management comes into play to ensure system reliability requirements succeed. This paper explains why. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Steve Miller (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Most of us travel by air and have probably wondered about the safety aspects of this mode of transportation, especially in light of the almost daily news media reports of accidents, terrorist plots, problems involving aircraft crews etc. The 737 MAX debacle alone would give anyone pause! This guide gives a broad picture of how the entire aviation industry works and will hopefully shed some light on the question “how safe is it?”. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Steve Miller (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Commercial aviation is undergoing constant technological change which, although apparent to the aviation community, is little noticed or understood by the flying public. These changes are driving the industry inexorably toward increasing automation for reasons of both safety and cost reduction, the ultimate long term goal being to produce the “totally autonomous” aircraft. [Read more…]

You may be thinking this can’t be right.  ISO 31000 is a guideline document.  ISO 31000 – 2019 explicitly states that it is NOT for certification.

Well things change.

AENOR offers an ISO 31000 certification.

AENOR is the Spanish Association for Standardization.  It is global Certification Body.  It has 20 offices in Spain, almost 600 employees and almost 19,000 management system certificates.[1] [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) just issued “On Risk: A guide to Understanding, Aligning, and Optimizing Risk 2020”.  This is the first risk assessment survey conducted by IIA.  It is also the first survey which includes responses from board members, the C-suit and the Chief Audit Executive (CAE).  This article looks at the results of the survey and its implications. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The four knowledge cornerstones of project risk management are:

• Project Management
• Earned Value Management
• Risk Management
• Subcontract Management

Why are these called the four cornerstones? Each cornerstone addresses a primary risk source as shown in Table 1. This article address risk management. The remaining cornerstones will be addressed in separate articles. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are two categories of project risk:

• Known risks
• Unknown risks

Known risks comprise:

• Scope
• Cost
• Schedule
• Quality

Unknown risks are the uncertainties and variations that surround every project. For example, an unplanned labour strike at one of your major subcontractor’s. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

At the time of this writing, coronavirus is spreading in China and is appearing in other areas of the world.  Seasonal flu is also spreading through much of the world.  As a comparison, the below graphics provide a snapshot of the current situations.  First is the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) graphic with its representative statistics.  Alarming?  CDC estimates 19 – 26 million flu illnesses; currently, there have been approximately 8,000 flu deaths.  Alarming? [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Coronavirus seems to be spreading quicker than previous pandemic potential viruses, i.e., H5N1, H7N1, SARS, Ebola, MERS, etc.  Could this be the long awaited/anticipated threat realization, or is it becoming a media driven phenomenon?  Needless to say, planners should be implementing some assessment analysis regarding the potential for impacting business operations.  Here is a brief look back at one of my articles from 2006, entitled, “Pre-Pandemic Planning: Business Continuity Perspectives“, when Bird Flu (H5N1) was the hot topic:

The business community is “not adequately prepared” for a possible avian flu pandemic, says Secretary of Health & Human Services Michael Leavitt.  As of July 24, 2006, there have been 231 confirmed cases in humans resulting in 133 deaths (a mortality rate of 57%).  The virus has spread to 33 countries through wild migratory birds that have now infected domestic poultry (source World Organization for Animal Health). [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In several previous Risk Insights, I discussed the need to view state and local government computer network as part of the national infrastructure.  This was needed because of the importance of the networks in providing and supporting basic services.  Further, by viewing these networks as part of the national infrastructure they become an important part of the overall federal effort to protect and defend the nation’s computer infrastructure.  This issue is so important that another paper is appropriate.  This piece extends the prior two pieces. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Studies have shown that most project failures are due to poor management of known risks. The known risks are:

• Scope
• Schedule
• Cost
• Quality

[Read more…]