CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Annette Davison and Ian Wright Ph.D. (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Risk is the impact of uncertainty on achieving your objectives – the impact can be either positive or negative outcomes (ISO 31000). Governments have multiple objectives they have to meet – health and wellbeing, economic, environmental, ethical and so on. Each of these objectives essentially becomes a risk endpoint. The fundamental tenets of risk assessment are understanding the system (the context), understanding and assessing the risk (against your identified objectives), managing the risk and then monitoring whether the risk is actually controlled, and whether a further risk treatment needs to be applied.[1]

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Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In Part 1, we looked at the two relevant dimensions for decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty that form the certainty-uncertainty spectrum are:

1. Degree of certainty – It ranges from close to certainty to far from certainty.
2. Level of predictability and control – It moves from close to predictability and control to far from predictability and control.

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Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the two relevant dimensions for decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty that form the certainty-uncertainty spectrum are:

1. Degree of certainty – It ranges from close to certainty to far from certainty.
2. Level of predictability and control – It moves from close to predictability and control to far from predictability and control.

Based on these two dimensions, in this Part2, we will be looking at the three conditions along the certainty-uncertainty spectrum that you will face when making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty.

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Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Two schedule tools are widely used for the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) around the world to manage projects. The first one is Microsoft Project (MS Project). The second one is Primavera P6.  They are both very good. Primavera P6 is an Oracle product originally designed for the construction industry. MS Project is simpler and easier to learn based on my experience. It also costs less than Primavera P6. DOD uses MS Project and typically requires it for use on government contracts. Other industries use one or the other depending on the size and complexity of the project.

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Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Uncertainty is all around us, never more so than today. Whether it concerns a global pandemic, the economy, or your finances, health, and relationships, much of what lies ahead in life remains uncertain.

Nonetheless, life continues. You still must earn a living, take care of the family, house, and car, and walk the dog. All under these new clouds of stress and uncertainty.

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Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Andy Benoit once said, “Most geniuses — especially those who lead others — prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.”

This statement is so true when corporate leaders and managers tend to over-complicate processes or over-engineer systems in organizations. Designing and implementing your organization’s enterprise-wide risk management system is no exception.

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Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Are project risks round?  Curved objects can be less controllable than planar ones as they pitch, roll and yaw; and the tighter their curves the more difficult control becomes.  Even a truly planar surface is, geometrically, a curve but with an infinite radius.  The Earth’s horizon, that imaginary plane perpendicular to its radius is considered by some to be ‘flat’ but in reality it’s a sphere so we can never see over the horizon.  But what has this got to do with project risk?

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Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is becoming an important topic and activity worldwide. This is in part because of COVID 19. COVID 19 focused the public’s attention on health risks. As the world comes out of the pandemic crisis, the focus, particularly in government, will be on other risks. Already, in the United States, cities which defunded the police, are reallocating money back due to rising crime. However, because of the political atmosphere and retirement of senior officers, cities are having trouble recruiting enough people to fill the vacated ranks. Adding to this problem are the consequences of riots and work from home. In many urban areas, the result has been a hollowing out of the urban core.

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Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We are in an interesting time in history, when transformative digital disruptions have their foot on the gas and are accelerating at exponential rates. Every industry is facing disruption in a multitude of ways, and it is now up to business leaders and their organizations to implement my Anticipatory Organization® Model and understand and identify the future certainties of Hard Trends and how to leverage them to become the disruptor before someone else does.

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Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Humble, personal, professional, expert or even uninformed; opinions are just opinions when the facts aren’t fully known or understood.  Opinionators are merely stating their belief as to the what, why, when, where and the how something has happened and who was responsible, who is culpable and who has to do something. This belief is believed, at least by them, and, for the most part, they expect other people to believe it as well. 

Agreement brings harmony, collaboration and progress while disagreement brings confrontation, debate and procrastination while each party attempts to convert the other to their oftentimes sanctimonious viewpoint.

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Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

How does Earn Value Management (EVM) reduce project risk? To answer this question, you have to understand what EVM is.

WHAT IS EVM?

EVM is the tool used to measure progress against the PMB. (Performance Measurement Plan).  EVM identifies poorly performing WP (Work Packages) and problem trends early in the project allowing maximum time to identify the root cause of the problem and identify an action plan to fix the problem.

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Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are numerous papers and documents on the internet regarding a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The question is how do you create one for a new project. This paper explains how.

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Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I have some experience with the Enneagram personality method. I found it to be accurate and useful. I suggest it is a good method to consider using to select your project team. The paper starts with a brief description of the Enneagram basics and then explains tips that can be used to select your team. Two figures are included to help explain the basics. You can go online and get a lot more detail information about the Enneagram method.

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Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I am a curious about some of the new project team theories or methodologies that have arisen in the past 20-30 years that are undergoing a resurgent today primarily due to COVID -19 effect on the workforce. These theories are designed to improve performance and functioning of a project team by making people feel comfortable about speaking up and being creative without the fear of repercussion. Google and other Agile companies are in the process of implementing these methods.

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Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Employers don’t hire people – or assign them a project or task – in the hopes they will fail.  And employees don’t take on a job, project, or task in the hopes they will fail.  On the contraire, the expectations all around are that the outcome will be successful.

Certainly, sometimes the outcomes are not successful.  But these unsuccessful outcomes are generally more tolerated – even expected – in companies that are in their early stages or have a company culture that is more entrepreneurial and not so risk adverse.  And when an unsuccessful outcome in such companies occurs, it’s usually a disappointment (and you certainly don’t want to make being unsuccessful a habit), but it’s not usually a negative mark on the employee.

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