Your Reliability Engineering Professional Development Site
A listing in reverse chronological order of articles by:
No discussion about managerial skills would be complete without talking about time management. Effective managers are excellent at utilizing their time. More than just their time, successful managers proficiently steward the range resources under their control … the people, the equipment, and the finances. But time is the most valuable of them all.
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Reliability-based forecasts can be made from field data on complaints, failures, repairs, age-replacements (life limits), NTFs (no trouble found), WEAP (warranty expiration anticipation phenomenon), spares, warranty claims, or deaths. Some spares inventory forecasting software says… “Please enter forecast______” No kidding. 1800 years ago Roman Jurist Ulpian made actuarial pension cost forecasts for retiring Roman Legionnaires. Would you like actuarial forecasts? Their distributions? Stock recommendations?
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The title was inspired by Rupert Miller’s report “What Price Kaplan Meier?” That report compares nonparametric vs. parametric reliability estimators from censored age-at-failure data. This article compares alternative, nonparametric estimators from different data: grouped, censored age-at-failure data vs. population ships and returns data required by generally accepted accounting principles. This article compares data storage and collection requirements and costs, and bias, precision, and information of nonparametric reliability estimators.
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The first and most important aptitude needed to move from a maker mentality to a management or leadership mentality is that of a lifelong learner.
Now, I’ve heard plenty of people say, “I learn something new every day.” And it’s a cute adage. But watching the History Channel or scrolling mindlessly through YouTube videos won’t likely produce a leadership mindset.
Instead, lifelong learning is an ongoing, self-motivated journey of acquiring new, particularly in-demand skills. Lifelong learners develop and employ strategies and plans to acquire new career skills. These plans may involve returning to university to acquire a new degree, but they certainly don’t have to.
[Read more…]The title is a Statistician’s Lament. “Design of Experiments (DoE) is the design of any task that aims to describe or explain the variation of information under conditions that are hypothesized to reflect the variation.” [Wikipedia] Are you using DoE to design reliability tests? What do PH, GMDH, and |D|-optimality have to do with design of DoE of reliability tests?
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In general, a statistical analysis of univariate data starts with a histogram. If the histogram doesn’t show a bell shape, the data probably does not follow a normal distribution. If the logarithm of the data plots as a normal histogram, then the data is lognormally distributed. Any statistical projections and parameter estimates are based on the normal distribution of the log of the data. This article focuses on the lognormal distribution and the lognormal probability plot.
Bob Butler nuclear engineer, musician (www.pleasantonband.org), former city councilman and Mayor of Pleasanton, California died October fifth https://www.pleasantonweekly.com/news/2021/10/14/what-a-week-remembering-bob-butler-former-pleasanton-mayor-and-councilman. He helped me get traffic counts data from the Pleasanton Traffic Department.
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Most successful engineers, analysts, programmers, and other types of makers of products and services will, at some point in their career, encounter a crossroads where they can either continue making, engineering, and programming, or they can begin managing those who do.
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“Seek first to understand, then to be understood.” – Stephen Covey
A good listener tries to understand thoroughly what the other person is saying. In the end the listener may disagree sharply. However, before voicing disagreement, the active listener wants to know exactly what the other person is saying and why. [Read more…]
“Seek first to understand, then to be understood.” – Stephen Covey
A good listener tries to understand thoroughly what the other person is saying. In the end the listener may disagree sharply. However, before voicing disagreement, the active listener wants to know exactly what the other person is saying and why. [Read more…]
IEC 60601-1 says… Estimate the probability per time pe of an electrical failure and of an oxygen leak po. Determine the accepted probability of dangerous failures [fire] per time r. Calculate the inspection time interval tc = r/(0.5*pe*po).
A friend asked, “What’s the 0.5 for? It doesn’t account for the fire event sequence: leak before spark.” I posted correction tc = r/((po/(po+pe))*pe*po) and notified the IEC committee which acknowledged, “We’ll consider your suggestion for edition 4.”
[An earlier, shorter version of this article on www.LinkedIn.com, July 5, 2018. This version describes an inspection-time and risk-analysis template.]
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Many corporate professionals feel the frustration of wanting to move up the ladder, but never getting a crack at their boss’s role. In many companies, large and small alike, navigating into a managerial role feels like stumbling around a dark room looking for the exit. Some people find their way; most don’t.
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When nuclear power plants were built, companies had quality assurance programs and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission risk standards. Now the nuclear industry faces obsolescence. Qualifying replacement parts and replacing analog instrumentation and controls with digital systems generates some reliability testing work. NASA solicits unmanned nuclear power plants on the moon and Mars. Nevertheless, the demand for nuclear engineers is decreasing. Fortunately, the nuclear industry spawned risk analyses useful in other industries.
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Many statistical tests and procedures assume that data follows a normal (bell-shaped) distribution.
For example, all of the following statistical tests, statistics, or methods assume that data is normally distributed:
“A thought, even a possibility, can shatter and transform us.” – Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
One of my favorite FMEA facilitation techniques, and one that can significantly enhance meaningful participation from FMEA team members, is called “Asking Thought-starter Questions.”