Stop Risk Theater, Start Real Decisions
We break down why risk analyses often become risk theater and replace them with a simple, practical impact vs likelihood matrix that guides action. From quick wins to high-stakes unknowns, we show how to calibrate effort, buy the right learning, and move with confidence.
Three key takeaways
- Avoid “Risk Theater” by Using Tools for Decision-Making: Risk analysis tools like FMEAs should be used to make genuine design decisions and drive changes, not just to check a box for project completion. Simply going through the motions without acting on the information is unproductive “risk theater.”
- Use the Impact vs. Likelihood Matrix to Guide Next Steps: The two-by-two matrix maps the Impact (if you’re wrong) against your Likelihood/Confidence (in your current decision). The resulting quadrant dictates the best course of action, ranging from delegating “Easy Wins” to prioritizing data-gathering for “Critical Unknowns.”
- Prioritize Investigation for High-Risk Scenarios: Decisions that have a High Impact and Low Confidence (Critical Unknowns) should not proceed until you have dedicated time and resources to investigate, test, and gather data. This step is necessary to increase your confidence and reduce the technical risk before proceeding with expensive or time-consuming implementation.
Join Substack
Subscribe to get the template and how-to, plus join us on this 3-month series.
