Bayesian Statistics and Sample Sizes
Abstract
Andre and Fred discussing the benefits of using what you know as you approach setting sample sizes using Bayesian statistics.
Key Points
Join Andre and Fred as they discuss a few papers at the recent ARDC conference that included topics based on Bayesian statistics. We quickly spent time talking about the role of Bayesian statistics and test sample samples.
Topics include:
- A basic description of Bayesian statistics as your current knowledge change the probability of an event occurring.
- A brief description of Weibayes and what it is and is not.
- A bit of a debate on the differences between frequentist and Bayesian approaches.
Enjoy an episode of Speaking of Reliability. Where you can join friends as they discuss reliability topics. Join us as we discuss topics ranging from design for reliability techniques, to field data analysis approaches.
/
RSS Feed
Show Notes
Andre, can you provide me with the Title of your book. Where I work they won’t let me have nice tools like WeiBayes because I might hurt myself e.g. engineer with scissors..lol
Regards,
John
John,
The book is ‘Practical Reliability Engineering’ Ed.5 by O’Connor and Kleyner and it has some basic info on Bayesian statistics and reliability applications. However, if you are looking for the specific application of Bayesian statistics to reduce the sample size, I can send you couple of articles we wrote on the subject. Let me know your email address or we can ask Fred to upload the papers to the Accendo website.
Fred, I’ve got a nuts and bolts book on Bayesian. Send me an e-mail and I’ll provide the title and some excel examples. Its also a history on Lord Bayes
Regards,
John
Hi John, Great really appreciate the lead to a good reference. I’m at bruno@rainmakerdigital.com cheers, Fred
I know of two textbooks on Bayesian Reliability, and I recommend both, although they may not offer the quick practical explanations some people want. For the last 30 years, one of the most intelligent and thoughtful advocates of Bayesian reliability is Nozer Singpurwalla and he has a book on the subject. Then there is a very old textbook by Harry Martz, although it is likely to be out of print now.
I have always been somewhat sceptical of Bayesian statistics for reliability, because it can be used to manipulate the data to get a desired answer. However, Bill Meeker at a recent RAMS tutorial gave a very convincing and intelligent explanation and defense of Bayesian reliability. Meeker is not known as Bayesian, so if he is a believer … I will be too
David,
You might want to take a look at this blog post Fred had me do a few years back on noMTBF.com. http://nomtbf.com/2012/07/whats-all-the-fuss-about-bayesian-reliability-analysis-2/
You get the full derivation there that is not in any text anywhere.
Mark Powell
would like to hear/learn more about bayesian stats for reliability engineering. thanks