Abstract

Kirk and Fred discussing the long, ever-impending death of the outdated reliability prediction handbook and its progeny.

Key Points

Join Kirk and Fred as they discuss Craig Hillman’s recent article on the prediction handbooks, and why they are misleading.
Topics include:

• The many difficult assumptions about making predictions based on simple models
• The past belief that intrinsic wear out failure mechanisms are a significant contributor to field reliability
• The electronics components and semiconductors are changing at a rate that we cannot empirically validate wear out mechanisms.
• The models do not factor in the early life failures from latent defects which are caused by manufacturing errors

Enjoy an episode of Speaking of Reliability. Where you can join friends as they discuss reliability topics. Join us as we discuss topics ranging from design for reliability techniques, to field data analysis approaches.

SOR 350 The Death of Military Handbook 217Kirk Gray

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Show Notes

Here is a link to Craig Hillman’s article “The End is Near for MIL=HDBK 217 and other Outdated Handbooks”

Here is a link to an article by Kirk on reliability and technological obsolescence “Why the Drain in the Bathtub Curve Matters”

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