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II. A. 3. Discrete and continuous probability distributions

by Fred Schenkelberg 6 Comments

Common Formulas

Common Formulas

Running through a couple of practice CRE exams recently (yeah, I know I should get out more…) found a few formulas kept coming up in the questions. While it is not a complete list of equation you’ll need for the exam, the following five will help in many of the questions. They seem popular maybe because the relate to key concepts in the body of knowledge, or they are easy to use in question creation. I do not know why. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Prep, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions, Exponential Distribution, Failure Rate

by Fred Schenkelberg 4 Comments

Reliability from Hazard Step Function

Reliability from Hazard Step Function

Received a sample problem from someone preparing for the CRE exam saying it was a tricky one. 

The hazard rate function for a device is given by

0.001 if t ≤ 10 hours  and 0.01 if t > 10 hours

What is the reliability of this device at 12 hours?

I first draw the hazard function [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions

by Fred Schenkelberg 12 Comments

Exponential Reliability

Exponential Reliability

Down to the last week of preparation for the exam on March 2nd. Good luck to all those signed up for that exam date. Time to focus on preparing your notes, organizing your references and doing a final run through of practice exams. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability, Reliability Modeling and Predictions Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions, Exponential Distribution, Failure Rate, Reliability block diagrams and models

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

OC Curve with Hypergeometric Method

OC Curve with Hypergeometric Method

The operating characteristic curve is used to understand lot sampling plan. It graphically provides a relationship between the unknown lot’s defect rate (or total) and the probability of the specific sampling plan to accept the lot. Very good plans discriminate between good and bad lots. Poor plans may accept bad lots or reject good lots to easily. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Reliability Testing Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions, Hypergeometric Distribution, sampling

by Fred Schenkelberg 7 Comments

Hypergeometric Distribution

Hypergeometric Distribution

In those situations where we sample without replacement, meaning the odds change after each sample is drawn, we can use the hypergeometric distribution for modeling. Great, sounds like statistician talk. So, let’s consider a real situation. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions, Hypergeometric Distribution

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

Poisson Distribution Calculation

Poisson Distribution Calculation

Let’s say the results of software testing averaged three defects per 10,000 lines of code. The criteria for release is 90% probability of 5 or fewer defects per 10k lines.

If this product ready for release?

The Poisson distribution is appropriate here as it is useful for modeling defects per unit, count per area, or arrivals per hour. If the data, in this case, the defect count per lines of code to be modeled by the Poisson distribution, the probability of an occurrence (defect in this case) has to be proportional to the interval (lines of code in this case). Also, the number of occurrences (defects) per interval must be independent (more on statistical independence in another post). [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: CDF, cumulative distribution function, Discrete and continuous probability distributions, Exponential Distribution, PDF, Poisson Distribution, probability density function

by Fred Schenkelberg 17 Comments

Calculating Lognormal Distribution Parameters

Calculating Lognormal Distribution Parameters

The lognormal distribution has two parameters, μ, and σ. These are not the same as mean and standard deviation, which is the subject of another post, yet they do describe the distribution, including the reliability function. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions, function, Lognormal Distribution, reliability, Standard Deviation

by Fred Schenkelberg 5 Comments

The Four Functions

The Four Functions

There are four functions related to life distributions of importance to reliability engineering.

Nearly all textbooks on reliability either introduce or use these functions. Likewise, nearly every calculation related to reliability statistics also uses at least one of functions.

Suppose we produced 100 units of a product and tracked them all till failure over time.

Eventually, all of them would fail. And, unlike the Parson’s One Hoss Shay the products and their components would not all fail at the same time.

One way to track the failures over time is to use a simple histogram.

By plotting the number of failures each month, for example, we would [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged With: Discrete and continuous probability distributions

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CRE Preparation Notes

Article by Fred Schenkelberg

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