uncertainty Archives - Accendo Reliability

What is FINESSE? (and how it empowers effective communication)

FINESSE is a cause-and-effect approach for effective communication when there are high levels of complexity and uncertainty. Said another way, FINESSE is an approach used for big, strategic decisions that take months or years to make. FINESSE facilitates the memory of effective communication: Frame, Illustrate, Noise, Empathy, Structure, Synergy, and Ethics.

Don’t Use FINESSE if…

Major decisions that take months to resolve, require a significant amount of investment, and involve many people (and some calculations) have complexity and uncertainty. These are the situations where trusted advisors need FINESSE. [Read more…]

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

The Unpredictability of Uncertainty

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Introduction

Recently I wrote an article titled “Can You Calculate the Probability of Uncertainty?” The article posited that the heavy dependence on mathematics to determine the probability of risk realization may actually create “false positives” regarding the basis for the determination of probability.

My point was that there is too much uncertainty, things that we just do not know, to be able to calculate the probability of uncertainty with any degree of confidence. I received several comments from readers telling me that I was confusing the issue and that determining the probability of risk is all about “uncertainty”.

I have to say that this gave me pause to think. And, my conclusion is that risk is all about the probability of identified certainties that carry an uncertain realization. [Read more…]

by Greg Hutchins 2 Comments

Can You Calculate the Probability of Uncertainty?

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Many aspects of risk management are deeply rooted in mathematical formulae for determining probability. This heavy dependence on mathematics to determine probability of risk realization may create “false positives” regarding a risk that can be either positive or negative. There is also a limitation on how much data can be gathered and assessed in respect to the development of the probability equation regarding the risk being assessed. [Read more…]